RESEARCH

Research Excerpts Date
FIS, FISV, WP, FDC: “When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It.” Initiating Coverage of FIS and Fiserv [EXCERPT] May 21, 2019
Payments 2019: You Are My Sunshine [EXCERPT] Jan 17, 2019
IT Services and Processors 2019: For Some, Surprisingly BAU. For Others, All About Plan B [EXCERPT] Jan 17, 2019
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” Initiating coverage of IT Services and Processors [EXCERPT] Oct 4, 2018
“Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day?” Initiating coverage of the Payments sector [EXCERPT] Jul 11, 2018
Title Date
Payments: From Tidal Wave to Tsunami – Our Proprietary eCommerce Forecast, Updated for COVID-19 May 22, 2020
Paychex COVID-19 Update: Green Shoots on Scorched Earth May 20, 2020
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: 1Q20 Roundup - Top Sector Themes and Updated Stock Preferences May 14, 2020
FISV 1Q20: Rays of Hope (and a New CEO) May 11, 2020
Cognizant 1Q’20: Are We There Yet? May 11, 2020
Square 1Q20: In Sickness and In Health May 8, 2020
FIS 1Q20: The Value of Diversification May 8, 2020
PayPal 1Q20: God Bless the Checkout Button May 7, 2020
GPN 1Q20: Global Payments Will Be Fine, but This Recovery is Looking Slow and Painful May 7, 2020
ADP 3Q20: Could Have Been Worse May 1, 2020
Visa 2Q20: Adjusting to the New Normal May 1, 2020
MA 1Q20: Terrible, Terrific, and Everything in Between Apr 30, 2020
IT Services, HR Processors: Incorporating COVID-19 – Our Revised 3-yr Forecasts and Stock Preferences Apr 27, 2020
IBM 1Q20: COVID-19 + New CEO + Red Hat = ? Apr 21, 2020
Payments: Impacts of COVID-19 on the Payments Sector (in 15 Slides) Apr 20, 2020
FIS, FISV, GPN: COVID-19 Resilient, But Theses On Hold Apr 16, 2020
Payments: How COVID-19 Might Change Us (Or Payments, At Least) Forever Apr 13, 2020
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: Three-Week Checkup – What We Know So Far About the Impact of COVID-19 Apr 9, 2020
PayPal: Not Immune to COVID-19, But Better Off Than Most – Will They Capitalize? Apr 8, 2020
V, MA: New Three-Year Outlook – Consumer Spending Worse than Expected, But V & MA Can Withstand It Apr 2, 2020
Paychex 3Q20: The Oracle of Small Business U.S.A. Mar 27, 2020
Square: Down But Not Out Mar 26, 2020
Accenture 2Q20: A First Glimpse at the COVID-19 Impact Mar 20, 2020
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: When Resilience Matters – Who Can Withstand the COVID-19 Shock? Mar 18, 2020
DXC: Messy – Yes, But Not That Messy – Upgrading to Buy, TP = $30 Mar 12, 2020
PayPal: A Deep Dive - The Bull Thesis in 20 Charts Mar 6, 2020
Visa and Mastercard: This Too Shall Pass. Now is the Time to Buy Mar 4, 2020
Square 4Q19: Square’s Slew of Suitors (aka the Other Reason to Be Bullish) Feb 27, 2020
MA: The Blessings, Curses, and Potential Legacies of Michael Miebach, Mastercard’s New CEO Feb 25, 2020
IBM: Dear Mr. Krishna, Six Actions We are Watching For Feb 24, 2020
FIS 4Q19: Moving Fast for the Long Term Feb 14, 2020
Visa: The Case for 12+% Revenue Growth Feb 14, 2020
Global Payments 4Q19: The Next Catalyst – Re-Visiting the M&A Chessboard Feb 13, 2020
ADP Innovation Day: Good Now, (Hopefully) Great Later Feb 11, 2020
GPN: Model update to reflect revised segment reporting structure and non-GAAP reporting methodology Feb 10, 2020
DXC 3Q20: The Touchstone – FY22 Free Cash Flow Feb 7, 2020
Cognizant 4Q19: The Reacceleration of Revenue Growth – Bull vs. Bear Feb 6, 2020
Fiserv 4Q19: Hard to Please Feb 5, 2020
Visa 1Q20: Looking for Something to Get Excited About? Try Visa Direct Jan 31, 2020
ADP 2Q20: Soft Bookings and PEO WSEs, Strong Retention – How Doable is the Second Half of 2020? Jan 30, 2020
PayPal 4Q19: Cleans Up Good Jan 30, 2020
Mastercard 4Q19: Can Mastercard Do a 15+% Revenue Growth Three-Peat? Jan 30, 2020
IT Services & Processors 2020: Hurry Up and Wait Jan 29, 2020
PayPal + UnionPay: Inching Along in the Right Direction Jan 24, 2020
IBM 4Q19: The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same Jan 22, 2020
IT Services: New CIO Survey Results Point to Stable IT Spending Outlook and Maturation of Cloud-Digital trend Jan 21, 2020
Visa + Plaid: A Rare Beast Jan 16, 2020
Payments 2020: Fistfights on a Freight Train Jan 14, 2020
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: Our Recent Downgrades of FIS, FISV, ACN, and ADP in 40 Slides Jan 10, 2020
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: Taking a Breather - Downgrading FIS, FISV, ACN, and ADP Jan 7, 2020
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: As we close the door on 2019, and open the door on 2020... Dec 20, 2019
Accenture 1Q20: Simple Ain’t Easy – Forecasting Accenture’s Revenue Growth Dec 20, 2019
Square: GPV Growth, PoS Innovations, Direct Deposit – Takeaways From Meetings with Square’s CFO Dec 19, 2019
Paychex 2Q20: Defying Sluggish Employment Growth, Management Solutions Growth Creeps Above 5% Dec 19, 2019
Visa: RTP Strategy, New Payment Flows, Other Growth Horizons – Takeaways From Meetings with Visa’s CFO Dec 18, 2019
PayPal: Growing Scale and Engagement – Takeaways From Breakfast with PayPal’s CEO Dec 16, 2019
Payments: Top Trends and Recent Developments in 30 Slides Dec 11, 2019
GPN, FISV, FIS: Issuer Processing – The Wingman Dec 9, 2019
Paychex: Building the New Paychex – Takeaways from Lunch with Paychex’s CEO, CFO, and Product Executives Dec 4, 2019
Payments: Big Tech, Neobanks, and Many More – Top Trends and Recent Developments in Payments Nov 25, 2019
PayPal + Honey: You Can Catch More Flies… Nov 21, 2019
Accenture: Digital at Scale – Takeaways from Breakfast with Accenture’s New CEO Nov 20, 2019
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: 3Q19 Roundup - Top Sector Themes and Updated Stock Preferences Nov 15, 2019
FB, PYPL, Square: Facebook Pay – Good for Facebook, Good and Could Be Better for PayPal, Non-Event for Square Nov 13, 2019
DXC 2Q20: Those Stubborn, Exasperating, Declining Revenues Nov 12, 2019
Cognizant: “Evolve, Not Fix” – Takeaways from Lunch with Cognizant’s CEO & CFO Nov 11, 2019
Visa, Mastercard: De-Risking the Chinese Giants – The Networks Strike New Partnerships with Alipay and WeChat Pay - November 11, 2019 Nov 11, 2019
Fiserv 3Q19: Nope, Not a Typo – Merchant Acquiring is Growing 10% Nov 7, 2019
Square 3Q19: A Little Painful to Get There, But So… Much… Better Nov 7, 2019
FIS 3Q19: The All-Around Athlete in eComm Nov 6, 2019
Square: Deliver-ance – Square Completes the Sale of Caviar to DoorDash - November 4, 2019 Nov 4, 2019
GPN 3Q19: A Peek Around the Corner at the New Global Payments Nov 1, 2019
Giving Apple Some Credit: The Apple Card, and What It Means for Verizon and AT&T - November 1, 2019 Nov 1, 2019
ADP 1Q20: Market-related or Idiosyncratic? Predicting Performance of the PEO Oct 31, 2019
Mastercard 3Q19: Navigating eCommerce – the Atropa Belladonna of Payments Oct 30, 2019
Visa 4Q19: “A Digital Wallet By Any Other Name…” Visa’s Strategy to Make Friends with FinTechs Oct 25, 2019
PayPal 3Q19: Yes, It is (Really, Finally) Happening - An Investor’s Guide to the eBay Roll-off Oct 24, 2019
Payments: One More Reason for PayPal to Diversify – ‘Click to Pay’ (the Unified Checkout Button) Launches Oct 22, 2019
IBM 3Q19: Underwhelming and Complicated. Looking Ahead…A Scorecard for IBM’s Success in 2020 Oct 17, 2019
ADP, PAYX: In a World of Tech-Enabled HR Services, Do ADP & Paychex Win or Lose? Oct 15, 2019
Payments: eCommerce Deep Dive in 30 Slides Oct 11, 2019
DXC: Hitting the Reset Button... At What Point Does it Become an Attractive Investment? Oct 8, 2019
Paychex 1Q20: Strikingly Sunny Skies…Do They Stay Sunny Through a Macro Downturn? Oct 3, 2019
Payments: The Tidal Wave – Our Proprietary eCommerce Forecast and Implications for the Payments Sector Oct 2, 2019
The Libra Litmus Test – Can Facebook Keep Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal on Board? - October 2, 2019 Oct 2, 2019
Accenture 4Q19: The Final Worry – Macroeconomic Exposure Sep 27, 2019
V, MA, FIS, FISV: B2B Payments – Big? Yes. Lots of Inertia? Double-Yes. And in Need of a Leader. Sep 26, 2019
ADP: The Long-Term Bull Case – ADP’s Unheralded Technology Leadership (Yes, Really) Sep 23, 2019
MA: Laying the Foundation for the Next 20 Years – Mastercard’s Expansion into New Payment Flows Sep 18, 2019
New Global Payments – Completing the Trifecta Sep 18, 2019
PYPL: The Bumpy Road to Greener Pastures - Navigating PayPal in 2020 Sep 16, 2019
Payments, Processors, & IT Services: Fall 2019 Sector Outlook (in 50 charts) Sep 9, 2019
Square: A Deep Dive – The Bull Thesis in 30 Slides Sep 5, 2019
SQ: Bye-bye Caviar, Hello Cash App. Upgrading to Buy Sep 3, 2019
The Incongruous Apple Card - most concerning to PayPal, Square, and...AT&T/Verizon? Aug 21, 2019
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: 2Q19 Roundup - Top Sector Themes and Updated Stock Preferences Aug 19, 2019
DXC 1Q20: Plan B Just Got More Urgent. Can They Sell the Whole Damn Thing? Aug 9, 2019
IBM: The Red Hat Strategy and Numbers Are In. Meanwhile, Cloud Growth is Decelerating. Now What? Aug 8, 2019
FIS 2Q19: Off to the Races Aug 7, 2019
Cognizant 2Q19: Dear Brian, Six Metrics We Think Really Matter for Cognizant Aug 2, 2019
Square 2Q19: Wherefore Art Thou, Cash App? Aug 2, 2019
ADP 4Q19: Seventy Down, A Few More to Go Aug 1, 2019
Mastercard 2Q19: A New Partner Every Three Days Jul 31, 2019
Global Payments 2Q19: Hurry Up and Wait Jul 31, 2019
New FIS – Another New Journey Begins - July 31, 2019 Jul 31, 2019
New Fiserv – The Journey Begins - 07.29.2019 Jul 29, 2019
Fiserv, First Data 2Q19: The Pre-Party Jul 26, 2019
PayPal 2Q19: $10 B Burning a Hole in the Corporate Pocket – Who PayPal Might Buy Next Jul 25, 2019
Visa 3Q19: The Other Third Anniversary – Visa’s Long Road Ahead in Europe Jul 24, 2019
IBM 2Q19: Just. In. Time. Red Hat Enters, as Cloud Growth Sputters Jul 18, 2019
FB, V, MA, PYPL: Libra, Libra, Libra – Answers to Your Top 25 FAQs Jul 16, 2019
GPN + TSYS: The New Global Payments – “Third is the one with the…?” Jul 12, 2019
SQ, PYPL: Is it Worth 40% of Valuation? A Deep Dive into Square’s Cash App Jul 8, 2019
ACN 3Q19: 31 Deals in 18 Months - Spotlight on M&A Jun 28, 2019
Paychex 4Q19: Unriddling the PEO Jun 27, 2019
Payments: Digital Wallet Wars Escalate – New 1000+ Respondent Consumer Survey on Usage of 14 Wallets Jun 20, 2019
FB, V, MA, PYPL: Libra Unveiled – Big Day for Crypto, Nice-To-Have for FB, Important Experiment for Payments Jun 19, 2019
Payments: Takeaways from Discussions with Stripe, REPAY, and Marqeta at MN's PPI Summit Jun 14, 2019
Payments: Takeaways from Discussions with the CEOs of American Express and Discover at MN's PPI Summit Jun 12, 2019
IT Services: Takeaways from Conversations with Cognizant's CFO and CGI's CEO at MN's PPI Summit Jun 11, 2019
Paychex: Four Takeaways from our Fireside Chat with Paychex’s CFO during MN’s PPI Summit Jun 10, 2019
Mastercard: Takeaways from Discussions with Mastercard’s President, NA at MN’s PPI Summit Jun 6, 2019
Visa: Takeaways from Discussions with Visa’s CEO at MoffettNathanson's PPI Summit Jun 6, 2019
PayPal: Six Takeaways from Discussions with PayPal’s CEO during MN’s PPI Summit Jun 5, 2019
Global Payments + TSYS: A Positive (and Necessary) Stepping Stone May 29, 2019
DXC 4Q19: Time for Plan B, Part 2… Sell IP & BPS, Buy More Digital? May 24, 2019
FIS, FISV, WP, FDC: “When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It.” Initiating Coverage of FIS and Fiserv May 21, 2019
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: 1Q19 Roundup - Top Sector Themes and Updated Stock Preferences May 14, 2019
FB, V, MA, PYPL: Facebook’s Cryptocurrency Project Libra – How it Could Matter May 10, 2019
IBM: A Deep Dive – The Bear Thesis in 20 Slides May 9, 2019
ADP: A Deep Dive - The Bull Thesis in 20 Slides May 9, 2019
Cognizant 1Q19: Gravity Prevails, Just as a New CEO Enters. Now What? May 8, 2019
Global Payments 1Q19: Who Might They Buy Next? May 6, 2019
Worldpay 1Q19: Dear FIS, There’s Upside to Standalone Worldpay (In Addition to the Revenue Synergies) May 3, 2019
Square 1Q19: Demystifying Subscription & Services May 2, 2019
ADP 3Q19: Resilient May 2, 2019
Mastercard 1Q19: Investing for the Future – A Peek Into the Next Horizon of Growth May 1, 2019
FDC 1Q19: Fiserv, Please Handle With Care May 1, 2019
FISV-FDC and FIS-WP: Is the Answer Always 4%? Our Financial Technology Services Market Forecast Apr 29, 2019
Visa 2Q19: Teflon Apr 25, 2019
PayPal 1Q19: Climbing the Tree Apr 25, 2019
Payments: The Adyen Threat – Takeaways From Adyen’s First Capital Markets Day Apr 18, 2019
IBM 1Q19: Meh Apr 17, 2019
Fiserv + First Data: Easier Synergies, Harder Long-term Growth – Our Revenue Outlook Apr 11, 2019
FIS + Worldpay: 1+1=7.7%. Our Revenue Growth Outlook Apr 8, 2019
The Merchant Acquirer M&A Chessboard - Who is Next? Apr 3, 2019
Accenture 2Q19: A Peek Behind the Curtain – How to Tell if an IT Services Firm is Good in Digital & Cloud Mar 29, 2019
Paychex 3Q19: 6%+ Organic Revenue Growth!? The Secular Drivers of HR Services Mar 28, 2019
Payments: The Foundation of the Bull Thesis – Why We Have 5+ More Years of Double-Digit Volume Growth Mar 25, 2019
IBM: Can IBM (+Red Hat) Catch Up In Cloud? Mar 22, 2019
FIS + Worldpay: Bigger Now, Better Later Mar 19, 2019
FB & PYPL Partner for Instagram Checkout - March 19, 2019 Mar 19, 2019
PayPal + MercadoLibre: A Base Hit, With Potential to be a Home Run Mar 12, 2019
V, MA, PYPL: The Amazon Risk Mar 8, 2019
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: 4Q18 Roundup – Top Sector Themes and Updated Stock Preferences Mar 5, 2019
Square 4Q18: What Can Jump Start the Stock? Feb 28, 2019
V, MA, PYPL: Not Imminent, but Worth Watching – the Risk of Disruption from Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Feb 27, 2019
Worldpay 4Q18: Playing Offense Feb 27, 2019
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Immersion Company Meeting Takeaways Feb 25, 2019
GPN 4Q18: Looking Beyond 2019 - Where Does Global Payments Fit on the Merchant Acquiring Chessboard? Feb 14, 2019
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies – State of the Industry Feb 13, 2019
DXC 3Q19: Tug-O-War Feb 8, 2019
Cognizant 4Q18: Seeing Some Green Shoots, Raising Target Price to $80 Feb 7, 2019
FDC 4Q18: Dear Fiserv, Five Things To Get Right With First Data Feb 7, 2019
Visa 1Q19: Visa Direct – The Next Big Thing Feb 1, 2019
Mastercard 4Q18: Why We Believe in 16% Revenue Growth Feb 1, 2019
ADP 2Q19: How Do All the Lines Point Up? Deciphering Market Shares in HR Services Jan 31, 2019
PYPL 4Q18: TPV Growth – Primus inter pares B Jan 31, 2019
IBM 4Q18: Pushing On a String Jan 23, 2019
IT Services and Processors 2019: For Some, Surprisingly BAU. For Others, All About Plan B Jan 16, 2019
First Data + Fiserv: Why Fiserv Investors Just Got a Really Good Deal Jan 16, 2019
IT Services: New CIO Survey Results Show A Positive 2019 Outlook For Overall IT and IT Services Spending Jan 14, 2019
Payments 2019: You Are My Sunshine Jan 10, 2019
DXC + Luxoft: Plan B, Part 1, Check. Jan 8, 2019
Worldpay: From Very Good to Great. Upgrading to Buy Jan 7, 2019
Accenture 1Q19: As We Enter 2019, Will Secular Dominance Outweigh Cyclical Softness? Dec 21, 2018
Paychex 2Q19: Secular PEO and HR Services Growth Offsets a Sluggish Core Dec 20, 2018
FB & PYPL - A Match Made in Heaven? What an Expanded FB/PYPL Partnership Might Look Like (and Why Now) Dec 13, 2018
CTSH: Model update for the changes in non-GAAP adjustment methodology beginning in FY19 Dec 11, 2018
V, MA, PYPL: The Payments MVP’s, Part 3. 'P' = PayPal – The Bull Thesis in 20 Slides Dec 6, 2018
Visa, Mastercard: The EC Cross-Border Interchange Settlement - We’ll Take It Dec 4, 2018
V, MA, PYPL: The Payments MVP’s, Part 2. 'V' = Visa – The Bull Thesis in 20 Slides Dec 4, 2018
MA, V, PYPL: Meet the Payments MVP’s. ‘M’ = Mastercard – The Bull Thesis in 20 Slides Nov 30, 2018
Visa, Mastercard: Revisiting the “Stroke of the Pen” Risk as Cross-Border Interchange Regulation Looms Nov 27, 2018
Can Cognizant Really Re-accelerate Revenue Growth? Nov 20, 2018
Payments, Processors, and IT Services: 3Q18 Roundup – Top Sector Themes and Updated Stock Preferences Nov 16, 2018
DXC: Sooner Rather than Later, We Should Talk About Plan B Nov 15, 2018
WP 3Q18: In the Goldilocks Zone Nov 9, 2018
Square 3Q18: Time to Dust Off the Bull vs. Bear Nov 8, 2018
DXC 2Q19: The Anchor Drops Nov 7, 2018
Payments: A Peek into the Future of Payments – Insights from Money20/20 2018 Nov 6, 2018
ADP 1Q19: Many Arrows in the Quiver Nov 1, 2018
Cognizant 3Q18: On the Bubble Oct 31, 2018
Mastercard 3Q18: Crushing it Abroad Oct 31, 2018
GPN 3Q18: Do-Re-Mi – Let’s Start at the Very Beginning…What is Revenue Growth and Is It Good? Oct 31, 2018
FDC 3Q18: Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater Oct 30, 2018
IBM+Red Hat: A Great Example of Why Turning Around IBM is So Damn Hard Oct 29, 2018
Visa: Important, But Not Well Understood: What Drives Visa's Cross-Border Revenues? Oct 25, 2018
DXC: Wait it out. Like IBM, DXC Has an “Anchor Problem” Oct 24, 2018
Freshly Divorced from eBay, Now a Most Eligible Single…Who Might PayPal be Dating? Oct 19, 2018
IBM 3Q18: An “Anchor” Problem Oct 17, 2018
Payments: If You Only Watch 8 Things in 3Q18 Earnings... Oct 12, 2018
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” Initiating coverage of IT Services and Processors Oct 4, 2018
PYPL: The Button Wars – PayPal Has 30%+ Share of U.S. Checkout and Counting...How High Can It Go? Sep 20, 2018
MA, V, PYPL: Twelve takeaways from a half-day of management meetings at Mastercard Sep 11, 2018
V, MA, PYPL: The Alipay Threat – Insights from Three Days Immersed with Ant Financial in Hangzhou, China Sep 6, 2018
FDC, WP, GPN: Who is the Fairest of them All? Forecasting Organic Revenue Growth for the Merchant Acquirers Aug 29, 2018
Payments Chart of the Quarter: Hang on to those stocks – Payments growth is accelerating Aug 15, 2018
Worldpay 2Q18: How hard is $100M in revenue synergies with no Amazon or PayPal? Aug 10, 2018
GPN 2Q18: Global Payments’ Software Strategy is Certainly Different, Jury’s Out on Whether It’s Better Aug 3, 2018
Square 2Q18 Earnings: The Square Dream is... Instant Deposit and Caviar? Aug 2, 2018
First Data 2Q18: One Small Step for NA GBS, One Giant Leap for the Turnaround Story Jul 31, 2018
Visa 3Q18 and Mastercard 2Q18: Is Mastercard Really Suddenly Better? Jul 27, 2018
PayPal 2Q18: Stand Tall, Checkout Button! Jul 26, 2018
WP, SQ, GPN, FDC: Regulatory tremors in the UK Jul 25, 2018
Agree or disagree? Payments coverage initiation FAQs, pushback, and sentiment Jul 23, 2018
“Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day?” Initiating coverage of the Payments sector Jul 11, 2018